Rising El Nino risk drives IMD’s below-normal monsoon forecast for India (Image source: PTI) NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department on Friday issued its updated long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon season. The agency projected below-normal rainfall across several key regions and warned of heatwave conditions in multiple states starting June.The country is expected to receive 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, with a model error margin of four per cent, the IMD said in a post on X.”The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over country as a whole is likely to be 90% of Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%,” the post read. “Indicating below normal rainfall over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September), 2026.”El Nino concerns drive forecastThe update comes as concerns mount over developing El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific, historically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over India.Reuters reported that El Nino-weakened monsoon in 2026 will bring the lowest rainfall in 11 years. This has raised concerns over crops, food prices and growth in the country.IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said neutral ENSO conditions are transitioning towards El Nino. The probability of El Nino conditions increases to 82 per cent by June and crosses 90 per cent by July and August.What is El Nino?El Nino is characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. It disrupts the Walker Circulation and often suppresses monsoon activity by weakening cross-equatorial flow and shifting rainfall patterns eastward.A “super” or strong El Nino event is a particular concern this year, with potential impacts intensifying in the latter half of the season from July to September.Region-wise rainfall outlookNortheast India is expected to get normal rainfall, ranging between 94 and 106 per cent of the LPA.Central India, South Peninsular India, Northwest India and the Monsoon Core Zone are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the season, the IMD said.June forecast: Below-normal rain, above-normal heatRainfall in June is expected to remain below normal across most parts of the country, at less than 92 per cent of the LPA. Some areas in Northwest India, Northeast India and the southern peninsula may, however, see normal to above-normal rainfall.”Maximum temperatures will be above normal for most of the country, except for parts of Central, Northwest and East India. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain mostly above normal,” Mohapatra said.Heatwave warnings for 11 statesThe IMD warned of an above-normal number of heatwave days in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh.Parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu are also likely to see increased heatwave activity.About the AuthorTOI News DeskThe TOI News Desk comprises a dedicated and tireless team of journalists who operate around the clock to deliver the most current and comprehensive news and updates to the readers of The Times of India worldwide. With an unwavering commitment to excellence in journalism, our team is at the forefront of gathering, verifying, and presenting breaking news, in-depth analysis, and insightful reports on a wide range of topics. 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NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department on Friday issued its updated long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon season. The agency projected below-normal rainfall across several key regions and warned of heatwave conditions in multiple states starting June.The country is expected to receive 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, with a model error margin of four per cent, the IMD said in a post on X.“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over country as a whole is likely to be 90% of Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%,” the post read. “Indicating below normal rainfall over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September), 2026.”El Nino concerns drive forecastThe update comes as concerns mount over developing El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific, historically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over India.Reuters reported that El Nino-weakened monsoon in 2026 will bring the lowest rainfall in 11 years. This has raised concerns over crops, food prices and growth in the country.IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said neutral ENSO conditions are transitioning towards El Nino. The probability of El Nino conditions increases to 82 per cent by June and crosses 90 per cent by July and August.What is El Nino?El Nino is characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. It disrupts the Walker Circulation and often suppresses monsoon activity by weakening cross-equatorial flow and shifting rainfall patterns eastward.A “super” or strong El Nino event is a particular concern this year, with potential impacts intensifying in the latter half of the season from July to September.Region-wise rainfall outlookNortheast India is expected to get normal rainfall, ranging between 94 and 106 per cent of the LPA.Central India, South Peninsular India, Northwest India and the Monsoon Core Zone are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the season, the IMD said.June forecast: Below-normal rain, above-normal heatRainfall in June is expected to remain below normal across most parts of the country, at less than 92 per cent of the LPA. Some areas in Northwest India, Northeast India and the southern peninsula may, however, see normal to above-normal rainfall.“Maximum temperatures will be above normal for most of the country, except for parts of Central, Northwest and East India. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain mostly above normal,” Mohapatra said.Heatwave warnings for 11 statesThe IMD warned of an above-normal number of heatwave days in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh.Parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu are also likely to see increased heatwave activity.
