NEW DELHI: Monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala on May 26, IMD said Friday, forecasting an early start to the rainy season in India. Monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, give or take seven days.“This year, the southwest (summer) monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 26 with a model error of ± 4 days,” the met department said, noting that its operational forecasts of the date of onset over Kerala during the past 21 years (2005-2025) were proved to be correct except in 2015. Early or late arrival has no bearing on overall monsoon performance or distribution.Last year, monsoon arrived over Kerala eight days in advance, on May 24.IMD has forecast ‘below normal’ rains this year amid El Nino riskThe onset of monsoon in Kerala marks the arrival of the southwest monsoon in the Indian mainland. It is an important indicator characterising the transition from hot and dry conditions to the rainy season.The met department has already predicted ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall this year over many parts of the country amid the growing risk of El Nino, which is invariably associated with harsher summer and weaker monsoon in south Asia.Meanwhile, IMD on Friday said conditions were favourable for the advance of southwest monsoon over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman & Nicobar Islands in the next 24 hours.IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards, using an indigenously developed statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days.The six predictors used in the models are: minimum temperatures over north-west India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) over south China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over equatorial southeast Indian Ocean, outgoing long wave Radiation (OLR) over southwest Pacific Ocean, and lower tropospheric zonal wind over equatorial northeast Indian Ocean.About the AuthorVishwa MohanVishwa Mohan is Senior Editor at The Times of India. He writes on environment, climate change, agriculture, water resources and clean energy, tracking policy issues and climate diplomacy. He has been covering Parliament since 2003 to see how politics shaped up domestic policy and India’s position at global platform. Before switching over to explore sustainable development issues, Vishwa had covered internal security and investigative agencies for more than a decade.Read MoreEnd of ArticleFollow Us On Social MediaVideos’Not An Iota Of Truth’: PM Modi Rubbishes Report Of Restriction On Foreign Travel28 Hostages From Kuki, Naga Communities Held By Armed Groups Released In Manipur’I Am Sorry To…’: Shashi Tharoor To Skip VD Satheesan’s Swearing-In As Kerala CMNEET UG 2026 Re-Exam On June 21, Computer-Based Test Format From Next Year: Education MinisterOman To Gujarat: India Fast-Tracks Deep-Sea Gas Pipeline Project Amid Hormuz CrisisCJI Surya Kant Makes Strong Remarks During Senior Advocate HearingKerala CM-Designate Satheesan Hits Back At BJP Over IUML, Secularism DebateFormer RAW Chief Flags Security Risks Over PM Modi’s Convoy DownsizingTMC MP Derek O’Brien Slams Centre After Petrol-Diesel Hike, Targets Modi Government’Bhojshala Complex Is A Temple, Hindus Have Right To Worship’: MP High Court123PhotostoriesKishwer Merchant recalls her father’s reaction to her interfaith marriage and age gap with Suyyash Rai; reacts to her son being trolled for wearing a skull capLauki vs Tori: Which has more nutrition for summer and 5 interesting ways to eat themAncient Kashmiri beauty secrets that are becoming popular again in IndiaFrom transparent bodies to underground lives: 5 bizarre frogs you’ve probably never heard of8 modern TV unit designs to instantly upgrade your living roomPersonality test: Mango, litchi, watermelon? Pick a fruit and see if you are a natural leader, kind, or creativeCannes 2026:Why Sanam Saeed’s Cannes debut is a major moment for Pakistani cinemaHow to grow butterfly-friendly native plants in Indian city home gardensNot just travel: 10 cheapest countries to retire in — 9 and 10 will surprise you5 adorable dog breeds that stay puppy-sized forever123Hot PicksCBSE class 12 resultUS Iran warPrateek YadavHaryana election resultForeign outflowNEET exam cancelledTamil Nadu assemblyTop TrendingNEET UG Re-Exam dateAdmit card indian army agniveer gdIPL Points TablePM ModiKerala Board SSLC Result 2026IPL 2026IPL Orange Cap 2026Bengaluru RapeWho is Shubham KhairnarIndia UA Trade Talk
NEW DELHI: Monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala on May 26, IMD said Friday, forecasting an early start to the rainy season in India. Monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, give or take seven days.“This year, the southwest (summer) monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 26 with a model error of ± 4 days,” the met department said, noting that its operational forecasts of the date of onset over Kerala during the past 21 years (2005-2025) were proved to be correct except in 2015. Early or late arrival has no bearing on overall monsoon performance or distribution.Last year, monsoon arrived over Kerala eight days in advance, on May 24.IMD has forecast ‘below normal’ rains this year amid El Nino riskThe onset of monsoon in Kerala marks the arrival of the southwest monsoon in the Indian mainland. It is an important indicator characterising the transition from hot and dry conditions to the rainy season.The met department has already predicted ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall this year over many parts of the country amid the growing risk of El Nino, which is invariably associated with harsher summer and weaker monsoon in south Asia.
Meanwhile, IMD on Friday said conditions were favourable for the advance of southwest monsoon over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman & Nicobar Islands in the next 24 hours.IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards, using an indigenously developed statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days.The six predictors used in the models are: minimum temperatures over north-west India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) over south China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over equatorial southeast Indian Ocean, outgoing long wave Radiation (OLR) over southwest Pacific Ocean, and lower tropospheric zonal wind over equatorial northeast Indian Ocean.
