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Mamata Banerjee and Rahul Gandhi (File photo/PTI) On May 2, 2021, Rahul Gandhi congratulated Mamata Banerjee and the people of West Bengal for “soundly defeating the BJP.”“I’m happy to congratulate Mamata ji and the people of West Bengal for soundly defeating the BJP,” he wrote on Twitter (now called X).However, the irony was hard to miss. While the BJP had indeed been kept out of power, it recorded its strongest-ever performance in the state — winning 77 seats, up from just three in 2016 — and firmly established itself as the principal challenger to the TMC. West Bengal assembly elections 2021 resultsCongress, by contrast, failed to open its account.Five years later, as Banerjee seeks a fourth consecutive term and the BJP eyes its maiden government in West Bengal, Congress finds itself out of the race and staring at a no-win situation: a Mamata victory could position her as a frontrunner for the opposition’s prime ministerial face in 2029, while a BJP triumph would add a major state to its kitty and further strengthen its momentum ahead of the general election.Which of the two outcomes would the grand old party prefer?Mamata Banerjee’s riseA former Congress leader, Banerjee founded the TMC in January 1998, and the party has since been part of governments at the Centre led by both the Congress and the BJP. Now an on-and-off ally of the Congress, she ended the Left Front’s 34-year rule in West Bengal in 2011 and secured two further terms, firmly establishing herself as one of India’s most formidable regional leaders. West Bengal CMs in last 50 yearsAfter a setback in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when the BJP won 18 of West Bengal’s 42 constituencies, Banerjee staged a strong comeback just two years later, leading the Trinamool to a third consecutive term.The optics of TMC’s victory, despite an aggressive BJP campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah, combined with Banerjee’s decision to take on her former aide Suvendu Adhikari in his stronghold — where she lost narrowly — burnished her credentials. Mamata Banerjee QuoteA fourth term would all but put her firmly in contention to be the opposition’s prime ministerial face for 2029.BJP’s emergence as principal challenger to TMCThe BJP did not find immediate success in West Bengal after Modi became prime minister in May 2014, winning just two Lok Sabha seats that year and only three constituencies in the assembly polls two years later.That changed in 2019, when it won 303 Lok Sabha seats, including 18 from West Bengal.In 2021, although the BJP fell well short of its target of 200 seats, it emerged as the TMC’s principal challenger. BJP’s seat surge in BengalNationally, too, despite no longer enjoying a majority of its own, the saffron party, with 240 Lok Sabha MPs—more than the combined opposition—remains on course for a fourth term, reinforcing the perception of sustained national dominance.Congress’ decline in West Bengal—and beyondIn February, Congress unilaterally ended its alliance with the Left Front and announced it would go it alone in West Bengal. Despite its rich political history, the party has not had a chief minister in the state since 1977, when its three-decade run in power, dating back to 1947, came to an end. Congress’ declining arc in BengalIts dominance in the Lok Sabha from West Bengal has been far more limited. The last time Congress reached double digits in the state was in 1984, when it won 16 seats as part of its nationwide sweep of 414 seats.Since then, Congress has not secured a majority on its own at the Centre. In the last three Lok Sabha elections, it failed to cross the 100-seat mark. It is currently in power in just three states—Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh. The removal of Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, a staunch Mamata critic, by the Congress as its Bengal unit chief, was also seen by many as the party “capitulating” to the TMC supremo. Chowdhury had held the Baharampur Lok Sabha seat—where Muslims make up roughly half the electorate—continuously since 1999. In the 2024 general elections, Banerjee nominated former cricketer Yusuf Pathan, a Gujarat native, who went on to unseat Chowdhury. Adhir Ranjan ChowdhuryCongress’ Rahul dilemma: Can’t win with him, can’t do without himCongress contested the 2014, 2019, and 2024 general elections under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, albeit without formally projecting him as its prime ministerial face. The 2019 defeat was chastening in both magnitude and context, coming under his direct leadership as party president and soon after he oversaw assembly victories in three Hindi heartland states in December 2018. Although he resigned as party chief in July 2019, Gandhi has continued to be the party’s most prominent face and principal decision-maker. Rahul Gandhi careerCongress’ 2024 resurgence—along with that of the broader opposition—was widely credited to Gandhi’s two “Bharat Jodo” pan-India marches, which many believe contributed to a noticeable shift in public perception of him. He was subsequently made leader of the opposition, the first since 2014. Rahul Gandhi careerHowever, what followed was a series of electoral reverses in the state assembly elections. He subsequently alleged irregularities by the Election Commission, accusing it of bias towards the BJP and holding multiple press conferences on the issue, but the setbacks continued.According to political observers, what hurts Gandhi is that he has never held public office—even when his own party was in power from 2004 to 2014—along with Congress’ poor electoral record under him, his frequent foreign trips, and a tendency to persist with issues even when they fail to resonate with voters—raising persistent questions about his effectiveness as a national challenger.Leadership question within INDIA blocThe INDIA bloc, formed in July 2023, brought together Congress and several regional parties opposed to the BJP under one umbrella. With the grand old party as its de facto anchor, the alliance avoided projecting a prime ministerial face, and managed to bring the BJP below the majority mark.Yet, the leadership question persisted, particularly after Congress’s successive defeats in state elections following the general election.In December 2024, following the defeat of the Maha Vikas Aghadi—of which Congress is a constituent—in Maharashtra, Banerjee expressed her willingness to lead the INDIA grouping and was promptly endorsed by senior leaders such as Lalu Prasad Yadav and Sharad Pawar. Mamata Banerjee quote Sharad Pawar quoteFor its part, Congress has repeatedly avoided endorsing Banerjee, instead emphasising the need to keep the alliance united. This includes party chief Mallikarjun Kharge, whose name was proposed as a prime ministerial candidate by both Banerjee and AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal in December 2023. Mallikarjun Kharge quoteGandhi has also constantly played down suggestions that he should be projected as a contender, instead emphasising the need for the bloc to remain united to “save democracy” in what he repeatedly describes as an “ideological battle.” Rahul Gandhi quoteHowever, in February, senior Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar explicitly endorsed Banerjee, calling her the “leader of the alliance.” He also said the INDIA bloc “belongs to the smaller parties” and that Gandhi should “let them handle it.” Mani Shankar Aiyar quoteThis, in turn, brings the leadership question within the INDIA bloc into focus.What Bengal means for each playerThe TMC and the BJP are both pushing hard to win West Bengal, each driven by their own distinct set of reason. For the Trinamool, retaining the state is crucial, as it has little presence beyond it. A defeat may not end Banerjee’s political career, but it would significantly dent her national ambitions. TMC SWOTThe BJP’s objectives are both ideological and political—ideological because Syama Prasad Mookerjee, the founder of its predecessor, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, was born here; and political because a victory would mark a major expansion of its footprint and strengthen its position ahead of the 2029 elections. BJP SWOTFor Congress, largely out of the race, the contest offers an opportunity to rebuild and improve its position in the state, but does little to alter the bigger picture. Congress SWOTA state contest, a national question for CongressCongress’s current spell out of power at the Centre is its longest ever, and the first to last a decade or more. Still, it remains the only national alternative to the BJP.Yet, West Bengal presents a unique dilemma for Congress—one that would either further strengthen its national rival’s prospects for 2029 or give a regional rival the platform to project itself for a larger, national role.Voting for the state’s 294 assembly constituencies will be held in two phases. In the first phase on Thursday, 152 seats will go to the polls, while the remaining 142 will vote on April 29, with counting scheduled for May 4.About the AuthorKaran ManralKaran Manral is a journalist at the Times of India. He covers politics, social issues, and international affairs, exploring stories that affect people’s everyday lives. 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