NEW DELHI: Do fractured mandates fracture parties? The crack in AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, much like the splits in Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, suggests they often do.In June 2022, Eknath Shinde led a rebellion in Shiv Sena and took away two-thirds of the party’s MLAs, toppling the Maha Vikas Aghadi government. The coup vertically split the party into rival camps led by Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray.A similar script unfolded in Tamil Nadu on Wednesday after the rebel AIADMK camp led by C Ve Shanmugam and SP Velumani extended support to Vijay’s minority government during the floor test despite a party whip directing MLAs to vote against it.This split Amma’s AIADMK into two factions, with 25 rebel MLAs on one side and 22 on the other.This came despite AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami saying the party would not support the newly elected TVK government and alleging that attempts were being made to lure MLAs with offers of ministerial posts and board chairman positions.The crisis has now raised a question: Could AIADMK be headed for a Shiv Sena-style split?AIADMK vs AIADMKThe chain of events started after the Tamil Nadu assembly elections delivered a fractured mandate with no party crossing the majority mark.TVK emerged as the single largest party with 108 seats, but remained short of the numbers needed to form the government on its own. DMK, which had swept the previous election, saw its tally fall to 59 seats, while AIADMK managed to win only 47 seats. Among the smaller players, CPI and CPM won two seats each, VCK secured two, and IUML retained both constituencies it contested. Congress managed to win five seats, PMK won four, while AMMK and BJP opened their accounts with one seat each.This pushed the state’s political parties into a post-poll numbers game.Reportedly, AIADMK and DMK – the Dravidian rivals – entered into talks to prevent Vijay from forming the government. Leaders in AIADMK alleged that EPS sought the chief minister’s post through such an arrangement.The move, however, did not sit well with a large section of the party.Subsequently, cracks within AIADMK appeared in the open as a group of MLAs submitted a letter to pro tem Speaker M V Karuppaiah seeking the appointment of former minister S P Velumani as the AIADMK legislature party leader. Later, 25 AIADMK MLAs from the rebel camp voted in favour of the TVK government during the trust vote.C Ve Shanmugam defended the decision, saying the AIADMK had to adapt to the new political reality after its poor electoral performance. He said the party should support TVK to revive what he described as “Amma rule.”EPS removes rebels; Shanmugam cries foul Hours after the floor test, Palaniswami removed 26 office-bearers, including C Ve Shanmugam, SP Velumani, R Kamaraj, C Vijayabaskar and Natham R Viswanathan, from party posts.The Palaniswami camp maintained that the whip issued by SS Krishnamurthy, appointed by the official leadership, was legally valid and binding on all MLAs. Palaniswami himself declared on the assembly floor that AIADMK legislators must vote against the government.EPS also claimed the AIADMK legislature party had already been formally constituted with him as its leader. Meanwhile, Shanmugam rejected the disciplinary action as invalid and said that Palaniswami had no authority to remove them. He also questioned how disciplinary action could be initiated without first examining the reasons behind the poll debacle through the party’s general council.Shanmugam also claimed no explanation had been sought from the rebel leaders before action was taken.What the anti-defection law saysAIADMK MP IS Inbadurai claimed the anti-defection law will be invoked against the MLAs who ignored the party whip and voted in favour of the government.Under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution, MLAs can be disqualified on two key grounds:If they voluntarily give up membership of the party on whose ticket they were elected.If they vote or abstain from voting contrary to a party whip without prior permission, and the party does not condone the action within 15 days.However, the anti-defection proceedings hinge on whether the whip was validly issued and properly communicated to MLAs.What’s nextNow, the split in the AIADMK in the Tamil Nadu assembly may lead the party’s legislative leader, Palaniswami, to file disqualification petitions against the rebel MLAs. This would force Speaker JCD Prabhakar to decide whether the rebel MLAs violated the party whip under the Tenth Schedule.However, any ruling by the speaker is likely to be challenged in court.Meanwhile, a battle over control of AIADMK and its “two leaves” symbol could eventually reach the Election Commission, which is not bound by the speaker’s findings in anti-defection proceedings.SC’s verdict on Shiv SenaIf a legal battle over the control of AIADMK reaches court, it is likely to hinge on the Supreme Court’s 2023 Constitution Bench verdict in the Shiv Sena split case.In the Shiv Sena vs Shiv Sena case, the top court held that the “political party” — and not merely the legislature party — has the authority to appoint the whip and leader in the House.The court also ruled that the speaker cannot recognise a faction as the “real” party solely because it commands more MLAs. Instead, the speaker must examine the structure and constitution of the original political party.The other routesThe rebel MLAs are likely to face disqualification if their numbers remain below the two-thirds threshold required for protection under the merger provision. In AIADMK’s case, the rebel camp would need at least 32 MLAs to avoid disqualification while remaining in the assembly.But resignation offers another route.If rebel MLAs resign and the Speaker accepts their resignations, they immediately cease to be legislators, making anti-defection proceedings irrelevant because the law applies only to sitting MLAs.Unlike disqualified legislators, MLAs who resign before disqualification are not barred from contesting bypolls. In 2019, the Supreme Court allowed rebel MLAs in Karnataka to contest by-elections despite disqualification orders passed by the Speaker. In effect, resignation allows rebels to bypass the two-thirds requirement altogether.The Velumani-Shanmugam camp still has another option.If the rebels manage to bring more AIADMK MLAs to their side and cross the two-thirds mark — 32 MLAs in the party’s case — they could avoid disqualification and stake a claim to being the “real” AIADMK legislature party.That is precisely the route Shinde followed in Maharashtra in 2022. He walked away from the Thackeray government with more than two-thirds of Shiv Sena MLAs, survived anti-defection proceedings and eventually won the battle over the party’s name and symbol. A similar drama played out in Madhya Pradesh in 2020, when 22 Congress MLAs backing Jyotiraditya Scindia quit the party, bringing down the Kamal Nath government and clearing the way for the BJP’s return to power under Shivraj Singh Chouhan.About the AuthorRohitashwa RanjanRohitashwa Ranjan is a digital journalist with The Times of India, where he decodes Indian politics as a carefully staged production with scripts, subtext and everything behind. His work tracks elections, party dynamics and the things that often are buried beneath the headlines. When not parsing vote shares or alliances, he is usually reading between the lines, where the real story tends to reside.Read MoreEnd of ArticleFollow Us On Social MediaVideosMan Trying To Hold Tin Shed Gets Swept Into Air During Violent Storm In Bareilly, Survives Fall’Unacceptable’: India Slams Attack On Indian-Flagged Ship Near OmanEC Announces Phase 3 Of SIR Across 16 States, 3 UTs; J&K, Ladakh, Himachal Left OutEx-Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee In Lawyer’s Gown Argues Post-poll Violence Case In High CourtKC Venugopal Backs VD Satheesan as Kerala CM, Says Congress Fully United Behind HimCongress Picks VD Satheesan as Kerala CM After 10 Days of Talks and Leadership BattleRBI Governor Warns Fuel Price Hike Possible If Middle East Crisis Continues LongerAIMIM Corporator’s Home Razed In Sambhajinagar Amid TCS Conversion Case Row EscalationKerala CM Race Ends as Congress Picks VD Satheesan Amid Venugopal Backing and Internal TensionsBJP Questions Rahul Gandhi Over Alleged Rs 60 Crore Foreign Travel Spending Claims123PhotostoriesAditi Rao Hydari just landed in Cannes and her denim airport look already screams red carpet royalty10 affirmations to attract calm and genuine loveFeeling constantly exhausted at work? 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NEW DELHI: Do fractured mandates fracture parties? The crack in AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, much like the splits in Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, suggests they often do.In June 2022, Eknath Shinde led a rebellion in Shiv Sena and took away two-thirds of the party’s MLAs, toppling the Maha Vikas Aghadi government. The coup vertically split…
