India is bracing for below-average rainfall this September, signaling an early end to the monsoon season with overall inadequate precipitation. NEW DELHI: Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be ‘below normal’ in Sept, the last month of the monsoon season, said IMD on Monday — an indication that the four-month rainy season is likely to end with overall deficient cumulative (June-Sept) rainfall as predicted earlier with high probability due to the impact of El Nino.The Met department said August, which reported a deficit of more than 16 percent in monthly rainfall in the country despite good rains in certain parts, was the warmest August in India since 1901, recording a mean temperature of 28.01 degrees Celsius.Region-wise, August in south Peninsular India was the second-warmest August since 1901, whereas it was the third warmest for east and northeast India, and fifth warmest for northwest India in the past 126 years.So far, the country as a whole reported a deficit of 14 percent in cumulative (June 1-Aug 31) rainfall, despite ‘normal’ rainfall in July. In June, the deficit was as high as 35 percent. Out of a total of 741 districts assessed for monsoon rainfall distribution, 312 districts (42 percent) received ‘below normal’ rainfall and 38 districts (5 percent) reported large deficient rainfall till Aug 31.A forecast of ‘below normal’ rainfall in Sept may lead to a deficit in overall kharif crop acreage. Though sowing of most of the seasonal crops is almost complete with a decline in acreage by nearly 2 percent compared to the corresponding period last year, low rainfall in Sept means an increase in the input cost due to farmers’ spending on irrigation of standing crops.“Spatially, many parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall, but some areas of northwest, northeast, east, east-central and south-east Peninsular India are likely to receive ‘normal to above-normal’ rainfall,” said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.He said currently “strong El Niño conditions” are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperature (SST) remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. “These conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months,” said Mohapatra, hinting at its negative impact on Sept rainfall.Join conversationView All Comments →Share your thoughts in the commentsInsightfulAgreeDisagreeSkepticalConcerningPromisingWorth ReadingBig DevelopmentPost CommentBe respectful · TOI community guidelinesEl Niño, characterised by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is invariably associated with a weak monsoon and a harsh summer in India.At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean and the forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate that neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist through Sept. It means the monsoon may not benefit from this climatic phenomenon as only positive IOD helps increase rainfall activities.IMD noted that the extreme weather events (lightning, thunderstorm and heavy rains) took 113 human lives in Aug. Mohapatra, however, said this figure can be cross-checked with the data compiled by the states.Get the latest India News and Live updates. Download the TOI app.About the AuthorVishwa MohanVishwa Mohan is Senior Editor at The Times of India. He writes on environment, climate change, agriculture, water resources and clean energy, tracking policy issues and climate diplomacy. He has been covering Parliament since 2003 to see how politics shaped up domestic policy and India’s position at global platform. Before switching over to explore sustainable development issues, Vishwa had covered internal security and investigative agencies for more than a decade.Read MoreEnd of ArticleFollow Us On Social MediaVideosDelhi Draft Voter Roll Out: 47.7 Lakh Electors Excluded, Claims Allowed Till September 30Akhilesh Yadav’s Big Attack On UP Govt; Divya Mittal Resignation & Meerut Custody RowIndus Waters Row: India Rejects Hague Court’s Jurisdiction, Says Treaty Suspension Will Continue’Dumped 40 KM Away In Delhi’: Teen Allegedly Gang-Raped In Empty Sleeper Bus, Two Accused ArrestedLVM3 Tech Transfer: Adani, Mahindra Among Firms Eyeing ISRO’s ‘Bahubali’ RocketPM Modi Meets Pezeshkian In Bishkek, Reiterates ‘Friendship With Iran’ Amid West Asia Conflict‘Babur’s Country Honoured Modi’: Owaisi Takes Dig At BJP, RSS As PM Gets Uzbekistan’s Top Award’One May Call Bharat Superpower But…’: RSS Chief Bhagwat’s ‘Vishwaguru’ Msg In Canada‘Islam Is Greater Than Other Dharams’: Karnataka Minister Sparks Row, BJP Calls Cong ‘Anti-Hindu’FIR Against Rahul Gandhi Under SC/ST Act For ‘Giving Caste Angle’ In Haldwani ‘Purification’ Row123PhotostoriesBigg Boss Telugu through the years: A look back at all seasonsVaibhav Suryavanshi breaks all-time Duleep Trophy record as a teenager: Times the young cricketer has made historyThe glass-skin obsession: Can Indian skin really achieve that mirror-like glow?Personality test optical illusion: Only sharp-eyed people can find all the hidden deer in this image within 11 secondsTamannaah Bhatia just made Rs 2.43 lakh look like a personality trait in this Aisha Rao ivory ensembleNew OTT releases this week (August 31-September 6): ‘Gandhari’, ‘Dhamaal 4’, ‘The Gentlemen’ Season 2, ‘Untold Raygun: Breaking Badly’ and moreTravelling by train in India? 10 things you should never do on a journeySamantha Ruth Prabhu joins the polka-dot club, and maternity fashion just got a lot more funBigg Boss Malayalam: A look back at seven unforgettable seasonsSimple things that make you feel good without spending money, from taking a walk to reconnecting with people you love123Hot PicksNepal floodMumbai port fireGandak riverMumbai milk priceDelhi rapeWeather tomorrowTN milk price hikeGATE 2027 registrationIndia GDP growthTop TrendingCanyon Flash FloodStuart BroadBabaz AzamNovak DjokovicUS Iran WarTravis Kelce BusinessKai CenatCoco GauffsNaomi OsakaLebron James
NEW DELHI: Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be ‘below normal’ in Sept, the last month of the monsoon season, said IMD on Monday — an indication that the four-month rainy season is likely to end with overall deficient cumulative (June-Sept) rainfall as predicted earlier with high probability due to the impact of El Nino.The Met department said August, which reported a deficit of more than 16 percent in monthly rainfall in the country despite good rains in certain parts, was the warmest August in India since 1901, recording a mean temperature of 28.01 degrees Celsius.Region-wise, August in south Peninsular India was the second-warmest August since 1901, whereas it was the third warmest for east and northeast India, and fifth warmest for northwest India in the past 126 years.So far, the country as a whole reported a deficit of 14 percent in cumulative (June 1-Aug 31) rainfall, despite ‘normal’ rainfall in July. In June, the deficit was as high as 35 percent. Out of a total of 741 districts assessed for monsoon rainfall distribution, 312 districts (42 percent) received ‘below normal’ rainfall and 38 districts (5 percent) reported large deficient rainfall till Aug 31.A forecast of ‘below normal’ rainfall in Sept may lead to a deficit in overall kharif crop acreage. Though sowing of most of the seasonal crops is almost complete with a decline in acreage by nearly 2 percent compared to the corresponding period last year, low rainfall in Sept means an increase in the input cost due to farmers’ spending on irrigation of standing crops.“Spatially, many parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall, but some areas of northwest, northeast, east, east-central and south-east Peninsular India are likely to receive ‘normal to above-normal’ rainfall,” said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.He said currently “strong El Niño conditions” are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperature (SST) remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. “These conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months,” said Mohapatra, hinting at its negative impact on Sept rainfall.
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El Niño, characterised by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is invariably associated with a weak monsoon and a harsh summer in India.At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean and the forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate that neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist through Sept. It means the monsoon may not benefit from this climatic phenomenon as only positive IOD helps increase rainfall activities.IMD noted that the extreme weather events (lightning, thunderstorm and heavy rains) took 113 human lives in Aug. Mohapatra, however, said this figure can be cross-checked with the data compiled by the states.
