ANI New Delhi: A simple calculator developed by Indian researchers can predict which tuberculosis (TB) patients are at the highest risk of death at the time of diagnosis itself, according to a study published in BMJ Open. Researchers say the tool could help identify high-risk patients early and support efforts to reduce TB deaths.The tool, developed by researchers from the ICMR-National Institute of Epidemiology (NIE), Chennai, and the Tamil Nadu TB programme, uses basic clinical measurements routinely available when a patient is diagnosed with TB. The authors say it could be useful in resource-constrained settings seeking scalable, data-driven interventions to reduce TB mortality.The study analysed data from 55,971 adult TB patients notified from public health facilities across Tamil Nadu between July 2022 and June 2023. It found that 7.4 per cent of patients died within a year of diagnosis, with nearly 68 per cent of those deaths occurring within the first two months.The calculator relies on simple indicators such as body mass index (BMI), oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, pedal oedema and the patient’s ability to stand without support. When combined with age, sex, site of disease, previous treatment history and microbiological confirmation, the model was able to accurately predict the risk of death.Researchers found that these simple triage indicators performed almost as well as more complex models based on multiple variables available later through the government’s Ni-kshay TB database.The authors have recommended that severe-illness indicators be routinely captured at the time of TB diagnosis. They also developed a TB death prediction calculator based on these variables for prospective use at diagnosis.The study was led by researchers including Suseendar Shanmugasundaram, Dr Hemant Deepak Shewade and colleagues from ICMR-NIE, Chennai, along with officials from the Tamil Nadu TB programme. Senior author Dr Manoj V Murhekar, Director of ICMR-NIE, was among the researchers involved in the work.India accounts for the world’s largest TB burden and reducing TB mortality remains a major public health challenge despite improvements in diagnosis and treatment. The researchers said the calculator could be used by Indian states and other high-burden countries seeking practical ways to identify vulnerable patients earlier.Get the latest India news and live updates. Download the TOI App.About the AuthorAnuja JaiswalAnuja Jaiswal is a Senior Assistant Editor at The Times of India, with an impressive 18-year career in narrative journalism. She specializes in health and heritage reporting, expertly simplifying complex health information to make it engaging and understandable for readers. Her deep dives into heritage topics are well-researched, resulting in captivating narratives that resonate with her audience. Over the years, she has worked in Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh and West UP, gaining diverse on-ground experience that shapes her storytelling.Read MoreEnd of ArticleFollow Us On Social MediaVideosRahul Gandhi Seeks Relief In Defamation Case, Says Statement Was Not About Kartikey SinghMumbai Local Train Murder: GRP Arrests Accused After Passenger Stabbed To Death During Door DisputeNEET Centre Claims Candidate Arrived 14 Minutes Late, Submits CCTV Footage to Back DecisionEmergency Added to NCERT Class 9 Curriculum, Described as a Major Democratic ChallengeKerala Government Faces Massive Backlash Over Proposed Tax Cut On Low-Alcohol Beverages30 India-Bound Vessels Cross Strait Of Hormuz As 26 More Await Safe PassageAir India Flight AI479 Briefly Crosses Into Pakistan Airspace, DGCA Orders InvestigationTMC MP Mahua Moitra Clarifies After Praise For Suvendu Adhikari Sparks Political Buzz In BengalBengaluru Metro Breakdown Triggers Commuter Chaos As Stranded Passengers Climb Lorries”They Saved Their Goods And Left Us To Die”: Survivor’s Explosive Claims Rock Aliganj Fire Probe123PhotostoriesVisiting Nepal? 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New Delhi: A simple calculator developed by Indian researchers can predict which tuberculosis (TB) patients are at the highest risk of death at the time of diagnosis itself, according to a study published in BMJ Open. Researchers say the tool could help identify high-risk patients early and support efforts to reduce TB deaths.The tool, developed by researchers from the ICMR-National Institute of Epidemiology (NIE), Chennai, and the Tamil Nadu TB programme, uses basic clinical measurements routinely available when a patient is diagnosed with TB. The authors say it could be useful in resource-constrained settings seeking scalable, data-driven interventions to reduce TB mortality.The study analysed data from 55,971 adult TB patients notified from public health facilities across Tamil Nadu between July 2022 and June 2023. It found that 7.4 per cent of patients died within a year of diagnosis, with nearly 68 per cent of those deaths occurring within the first two months.The calculator relies on simple indicators such as body mass index (BMI), oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, pedal oedema and the patient’s ability to stand without support. When combined with age, sex, site of disease, previous treatment history and microbiological confirmation, the model was able to accurately predict the risk of death.Researchers found that these simple triage indicators performed almost as well as more complex models based on multiple variables available later through the government’s Ni-kshay TB database.The authors have recommended that severe-illness indicators be routinely captured at the time of TB diagnosis. They also developed a TB death prediction calculator based on these variables for prospective use at diagnosis.The study was led by researchers including Suseendar Shanmugasundaram, Dr Hemant Deepak Shewade and colleagues from ICMR-NIE, Chennai, along with officials from the Tamil Nadu TB programme. Senior author Dr Manoj V Murhekar, Director of ICMR-NIE, was among the researchers involved in the work.India accounts for the world’s largest TB burden and reducing TB mortality remains a major public health challenge despite improvements in diagnosis and treatment. The researchers said the calculator could be used by Indian states and other high-burden countries seeking practical ways to identify vulnerable patients earlier.
