Around 70% of all El Nino years since 1980 have corresponded with poor summer monsoons, showing that the link between the Pacific condition and the country’s June-Sept rains is one of the strongest among global weather phenomena impacting India’s rainy season. The link assumes importance in light of latest forecasts from US and European weather agencies that have advanced the likelihood of El Nino setting in within two-three months and said it’s expected to be stronger than what earlier forecasts suggested. In it’s monsoon outlook, IMD says the season’s rainfall is expected to be below normal. TOI analysed all El Nino years since 1980 – as defined by US agency NCEP – and the corresponding monsoon performance. Of the 13 such years, the monsoon was deficient or severely deficient (below 90% of long period average) in seven, below normal (90-96%) in two, normal in three and excess in one. Of the two below-normal years, rains in 2018 was close to deficient (below 91%). According to IMD, which uses a different metric to define El Nino years, there were eight such years during which the monsoon was deficient in six, including one year (2002) when it was severely deficient (rainfall below 80% of LPA). In addition, there have been years such as 2014, when rising heat in the Pacific impacted monsoon although El Nino finally didn’t develop. During an El Nino, there’s unusual warming of surface waters in eastern and central tropical Pacific which leads to changes in wind patterns that impact weather across the globe in different ways. There are notable exceptions when monsoon turned out to be normal despite an El Nino. The most cited example is 1997 which saw one of the strongest El Ninos on record, but June-Sept rainfall in India remained normal. That year, conditions in Indian Ocean – a phenomenon known as Indian Ocean Dipole – strongly favoured good rains over India and is thought to have countered the effects of El Nino. There’s consensus among global agencies over the possibility of El Nino forming this summer. European agency ECMWF projects a high probability of the condition developing in May-June and going on to strengthen into a very strong event – dubbed a ‘super El Nino’ by some – by the year end.End of ArticleFollow Us On Social MediaVideosVikram Misri Holds Key Talks With French FM, Discusses West Asia Conflict, Bilateral TiesMEA Responds As 15 Indian Ships Remain Stranded Amid Trump’s Hormuz BlockadeUS Naval Blockade on Iran: Why Strait of Hormuz Tensions Could Hit India’s Oil, LPG and InflationTCS Nashik In Eye Of Storm As Women Allege Harassment, Conversion Pressure At Workplace’We Have Common Fate’: Iran Envoy Thanks ‘Friend’ India, Responds On Hormuz Toll RowSupreme Court Refuses To Quash CBI Case Against Lalu Yadav In Land-For-Jobs Scam, Trial To ContinueNoida Protests Explained: Pay Gap Rising Costs And Labour Issues Behind The ViolenceTrust Deficit Grows In Ladakh As Activist Sonam Wangchuk Flags Delay In Talks With CentrePatna Posters Push Nishant Kumar As Next Chief Minister Of BiharDelhi To Dehradun In 2.5 Hours? PM To Flag Off India’s New Expressway That Opens New Era Of Speed123Photostories8 elegant baby girl names inspired by rare flowers you have probably never heard of10 scientific breakthroughs that rewrote the rules of warPoila Boishakh 2026: 9 traditional Bengali dishes served on New YearDelhi-Dehradun Expressway: Travel From Delhi To Dehradun In Just 2.5 Hours! Check Top Facts & PhotosFrom Brad Pitt to Baby Dakota Fanning: 7 actors you totally forgot were on ‘Friends’TV’s 6 female protagonists who were ahead of their time: Tulsi Virani, Anupamaa and more5 cities in West India experiencing real estate boom in 2026Baisakhi 2026: Traditional Baisakhi dishes and their cultural importance in the harvest festivalThis small trick can tell you whether you are consuming watermelon or a toxic fruitEnjoyed ‘The Boys’? Here are more must-watch superhero dramas to binge next123Hot PicksIran warStock market holidayPurple cap winnerOrange cap winnerIPL Points TablePublic holidays April 2026Bank Holidays AprilTop TrendingStock market holidayBank holiday todayKaty PerryAnna Kepner murderDon TzuDelhi-Dehradun ExpresswayPraful HingeIPL Points TableKavya MaranNFL news roundup
Around 70% of all El Nino years since 1980 have corresponded with poor summer monsoons, showing that the link between the Pacific condition and the country’s June-Sept rains is one of the strongest among global weather phenomena impacting India’s rainy season. The link assumes importance in light of latest forecasts from US and European weather agencies that have advanced the likelihood of El Nino setting in within two-three months and said it’s expected to be stronger than what earlier forecasts suggested. In it’s monsoon outlook, IMD says the season’s rainfall is expected to be below normal.
TOI analysed all El Nino years since 1980 – as defined by US agency NCEP – and the corresponding monsoon performance. Of the 13 such years, the monsoon was deficient or severely deficient (below 90% of long period average) in seven, below normal (90-96%) in two, normal in three and excess in one. Of the two below-normal years, rains in 2018 was close to deficient (below 91%). According to IMD, which uses a different metric to define El Nino years, there were eight such years during which the monsoon was deficient in six, including one year (2002) when it was severely deficient (rainfall below 80% of LPA). In addition, there have been years such as 2014, when rising heat in the Pacific impacted monsoon although El Nino finally didn’t develop. During an El Nino, there’s unusual warming of surface waters in eastern and central tropical Pacific which leads to changes in wind patterns that impact weather across the globe in different ways. There are notable exceptions when monsoon turned out to be normal despite an El Nino. The most cited example is 1997 which saw one of the strongest El Ninos on record, but June-Sept rainfall in India remained normal. That year, conditions in Indian Ocean – a phenomenon known as Indian Ocean Dipole – strongly favoured good rains over India and is thought to have countered the effects of El Nino. There’s consensus among global agencies over the possibility of El Nino forming this summer. European agency ECMWF projects a high probability of the condition developing in May-June and going on to strengthen into a very strong event – dubbed a ‘super El Nino’ by some – by the year end.
