AI- generated image NEW DELHI: Private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, on Tuesday predicted ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall this year amid risk of El Niño whose impact is expected to develop increasingly during the second half (Aug-Sept) of the four-month season, beginning June.If that happens, India’s farm sector, which is already staring at the possibility of high input (fertiliser and diesel) costs due to war in west Asia, may face additional tough conditions as more than half of the country’s farming operations depend on monsoon rains for irrigation.Though the IMD is expected to release its forecast – considered the most authoritative one – either later this week or next week, the possibility of subpar monsoon is not ruled out at this juncture as the country’s national weather forecaster and the global agencies too earlier indicated gradual increase of development of El Niño conditions towards the later phase of the monsoon season.El Nino – climate conditions associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean – invariably linked to depressed monsoon rains in the Indian sub-continent.“Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 94% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the four-month long period from June to Sept. The spread is below normal, being 90-95% of LPA,” said the private forecaster.It underlined 40% probability of ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall with another 30% indicating possibility of ‘drought’ (when the monsoon rains fall below 90% of the LPA) this year.In terms of geographical distribution of rainfall, Skymet expects the core monsoon rainfed zone of central and western parts of the country to witness “inadequate rainfall”.“Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to observe less than normal rains, and more so, during Aug-Sept. East and northeastern parts will be placed better than the rest of the country,” it said.“Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year. El Niño return may presage a weaker monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular,” said Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet.The weather agency, however, noted a “strong positive” Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – another climatic phenomena linked to monsoon rains – during the season has the potential to “partially avert the ill effects of El Niño”. “IOD is expected to be neutral or delicately positive. It will contribute to a decent start of monsoon. However, the chances of monsoon getting impaired during the second half of season can not be dismissed. The seasonal rainfall distribution will be at risk of being diverse and biased,” said the Skymet.According to its monthly scale forecast, the monsoon rains in June are expected to be normal (101% of the monthly LPA) but it will gradually decrease quantitatively with 95% of the LPA in July, 92% of the LPA in August and 89% of the LPA in September.About the AuthorVishwa MohanVishwa Mohan is Senior Editor at The Times of India. He writes on environment, climate change, agriculture, water resources and clean energy, tracking policy issues and climate diplomacy. He has been covering Parliament since 2003 to see how politics shaped up domestic policy and India’s position at global platform. Before switching over to explore sustainable development issues, Vishwa had covered internal security and investigative agencies for more than a decade.Read MoreEnd of ArticleFollow Us On Social MediaVideos’Target Of Akhand Bharat’: Pakistan Senator Sounds Alarm Over Growing India-UAE Ties’At The Behest Of Mamata’: BJP MP Nishikant Dubey’s Shocking Claim On Pakistan’s Kolkata ThreatIndia Seeks US Waiver On Chabahar Amid Conflict; Iran Envoy Hints At Key Port Revival After WarBJP Calls Kharge’s ‘Snake’ Remark Dangerous, Alleges Communal ProvocationAssam Passport Row Turns Personal: Himanta Sarma Takes ‘Peda’ Jibe At Pawan Khera, Congress Responds’Pakistan Will Be Divided Into…’: Rajnath Singh’s Strong Response To Khawaja Asif’s Kolkata ThreatAhead Of Vikram Misri’s US Visit, Sergio Gor’s High Level Meetings Set Stage For Key Strategic TalksAfter US Rescue Ops Inside Iran, Question Emerges, Could India Have Attempted Such Mission In 2019?’India’s Global Rise Needs Military Edge’: Michael Rubin Urges Delhi To Match Power With CapabilityGovt Boosts 5-Kg LPG Allocation For Migrants As Supply Pressure Grows123PhotostoriesHappy birthday Jackie Chan: ‘Drunken Master’, ‘Police Story’ to ‘Rush Hour’ – The legend’s greatest hitsHeartbroken? 7 inspiring quotes on why this isn’t the end of your storyBrad Pitt, Tom Cruise and more: Hollywood stars who adore Bollywood actors, trends and movies4 non-negotiable rules for a healthy relationshipTamil Nadu’s Buckingham Canal gets Rs 45 crore makeover: Walkways, cycling tracks, Miyawaki forests planned7 career mistakes that stop smart people from growing, and how to fix them6 Japanese ideas that quietly help calm an overthinking mind5 Times Brad Pitt made us fall in love with his characters: Benjamin Button, Lt. 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NEW DELHI: Private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, on Tuesday predicted ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall this year amid risk of El Niño whose impact is expected to develop increasingly during the second half (Aug-Sept) of the four-month season, beginning June.If that happens, India’s farm sector, which is already staring at the possibility of high input (fertiliser and diesel) costs due to war in west Asia, may face additional tough conditions as more than half of the country’s farming operations depend on monsoon rains for irrigation.Though the IMD is expected to release its forecast – considered the most authoritative one – either later this week or next week, the possibility of subpar monsoon is not ruled out at this juncture as the country’s national weather forecaster and the global agencies too earlier indicated gradual increase of development of El Niño conditions towards the later phase of the monsoon season.El Nino – climate conditions associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean – invariably linked to depressed monsoon rains in the Indian sub-continent.“Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 94% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the four-month long period from June to Sept. The spread is below normal, being 90-95% of LPA,” said the private forecaster.It underlined 40% probability of ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall with another 30% indicating possibility of ‘drought’ (when the monsoon rains fall below 90% of the LPA) this year.In terms of geographical distribution of rainfall, Skymet expects the core monsoon rainfed zone of central and western parts of the country to witness “inadequate rainfall”.“Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to observe less than normal rains, and more so, during Aug-Sept. East and northeastern parts will be placed better than the rest of the country,” it said.“Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year. El Niño return may presage a weaker monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular,” said Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet.The weather agency, however, noted a “strong positive” Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – another climatic phenomena linked to monsoon rains – during the season has the potential to “partially avert the ill effects of El Niño”. “IOD is expected to be neutral or delicately positive. It will contribute to a decent start of monsoon. However, the chances of monsoon getting impaired during the second half of season can not be dismissed. The seasonal rainfall distribution will be at risk of being diverse and biased,” said the Skymet.According to its monthly scale forecast, the monsoon rains in June are expected to be normal (101% of the monthly LPA) but it will gradually decrease quantitatively with 95% of the LPA in July, 92% of the LPA in August and 89% of the LPA in September.
