July 22, 2026

June 2026

NEW DELHI: General Upendra Dwivedi, during his last speech as Army chief on Tuesday, said “wars will be more joint, integrated and theatre-oriented in future”, therefore the direction of the armed forces is clear “to see together, take decisions together and take actions together”.Gen Dwivedi, whose distinguished military career spanned more than four decades, said, “As I conclude my tenure as the Chief of the Army Staff, my heart is filled with gratitude, appreciation, pride, and satisfaction. My journey from the Sainik School to this position has been unforgettable. Serving in the Indian Army for more than four decades has been the greatest privilege of my life.” Watch ‘History Or Geography’: Indian Army Chief Upendra Dwivedi Issues Stern Warning To PakistanGeneral Dhiraj Seth took over from Gen Dwivedi as the 31st Chief of Army Staff. He is the first officer from the Armoured Corps to lead the Army since General Shankar Roy Chowdhary retired in 1997. The change of command was marked with a ceremony at South Block Lawns in New Delhi, where Gen Dwivedi was given a special send-off.In another change in the Army leadership, Lt Gen Sandeep Jain will assume office as the Vice-Chief of the Army Staff from July 1. The reshuffle also witnessed Lt Gen Mohit Malhotra and Lt Gen Rajesh Pushkar take chare of the South Western and Southern Commands, respectively.Gen Dwivedi’s tenure will be remembered for maintaining a high state of operational preparedness, strengthening jointness among the services, accelerating the process of transformation and giving focused impetus to technology absorption, force restructuring and soldier-centric initiatives. He accorded high priority to operational readiness across all theatres. Under his leadership, the Indian Army maintained a robust and vigilant posture along the northern borders under Op Snow Leopard and discharged its responsibilities on the western front with resolve, restraint and professionalism, the defence ministry said. “Operation Sindoor was a defining moment of Gen Dwivedi’s tenure, reflecting the Army’s preparedness, precision and calibrated response in the emerging security environment,” it said.Under his guidance, the Indian Army pursued reforms in force restructuring, modernisation, technology absorption, jointness, systems reform and human resource management. Initiatives such as Rudra Brigades, Bhairav Battalions, Ashni Drone Platoons, Shaktibaan Regiments, Divyastra Batteries, Electronic Warfare Brigades and Integrated Battle Groups progressed as part of his larger effort to build a modern, agile and future-ready force.Gen Dwivedi also laid emphasis on enhanced synergy among the three services. He consistently encouraged greater integration, common operational thinking and improved coordination among the Army, Navy and Air Force, in keeping with the requirements of future joint, integrated and theatre-oriented operations. The welfare of serving personnel, veterans, Veer Naris and families remained a key priority during his tenure.Gen Dwivedi, who was conferred with prestigious awards of Param Vishisht Seva Medal and Ati Vishisht Seva Medal, also guided the formulation of Strategic Security Guidelines 2047, inspired by Viksit Bharat Vision 2047 and Armed Forces Vision 2047, to provide a long-term outlook for the Indian Army’s future preparedness.New Army chief Gen Dhiraj Seth:Over a distinguished military career spanning nearly four decades, Gen Dhiraj Seth has had extensive experience across the operational, strategic, capability development and institutional domains, contributing significantly to the Army’s combat effectiveness and long-term transformation, according to the Ministry of Defence.He is an alumnus of the National Defence Academy, Khadakwasla, and was commissioned into the Armoured Corps in December 1986. Over a distinguished military career spanning nearly four decades, he has had extensive experience across the operational, strategic, capability development and institutional domains, contributing significantly to the Army’s combat effectiveness and long-term transformation.General Dwivedi expressed confidence in Gen Seth as the next Army chief’s skills, saying, “He is a seasoned soldier and a capable leader. I have full confidence that under his leadership, the Indian Army will scale even greater heights while upholding its glorious traditions, professionalism, and resolve. As I hand over this charge today, I am fully confident about the future of the Indian Army; it will remain rooted in its traditions, stay vigilant regarding current challenges, and remain constantly prepared for any situation that may arise in the future.”Reshuffle in the IAF:In the Air Force, Air Marshal Ashutoh Dixit will take over as the Vice Chief of the Air Staff on July 1, succeeding Air Marshal Nagesh Kapoor.Get the latest India news and live updates. Download the TOI App.End of ArticleFollow Us On Social MediaVideosIndia’s Oil Import Price Fell Below — Why Petrol & Diesel Prices Won’t Drop Yet |West Asia CrisisDelhi’s Biggest EV Policy Yet! No New Petrol Bikes From 2028 | ₹15,000 Crore Plan ExplainedIndia, US Close to Major Boeing Defence Deal, Says Sergio Gor; Cites .5 Billion Investment BoostRajya Sabha Numbers Tilt Towards NDA, Bringing Two-Thirds Majority Within Striking DistanceIndia Condemns Pakistan’s Airstrikes In Afghanistan, Calls Them Assault On Sovereignty & Peace’No Official Role, No Official Support’: India Distances Itself From India-Pakistan Track-2 DialogueUS Ambassador Says Trump’s India Visit Could Happen Soon, Confirms Quad Meeting in PhilippinesAre We Learning Nothing From Deadly Fire Accidents Across India? Experts Sound AlarmSarla Bhat Murder Case: SIA Files 737-Page Chargesheet, Yasin Malik Named Main AccusedWhat West Bengal’s New Public Safety and Anti-Goonda Bill Means and Why It Is Controversial123Photostories8 hacks every Indian woman needs this season to beat ‘monsoon frizz’7 Natural ways to clean your home floors without harsh chemicals3 signs you are the ‘fringe friend’ in your groupNaomi Osaka rewrites Wimbledon fashion rules in a striking kimono-inspired ensembleForget Paneer and Besan: Try these 11 unusual Indian sweets made with vegetablesPsychology says loving fresh bedsheets isn’t just about hygiene; it may be your mind’s way of finding calm and control5 topical minoxidil alternatives to increase hair growthInside Gauahar Khan’s luxurious Rs 15 crore duplex house: Royal interiors, grand staircase and cosy cornersLord Karuppa Swamy’s red chillies offering to Pothuraju’s turmeric abhishekam: 5 South Indian folk deities that are worshipped with unique objectsLove quote of the day by Emraan Hashmi: ‘It’s a relation of trust’123Hot PicksKarnataka SIRJohn CenaSergio GorWWE Summerslam PredictionsiPhone 18 Pro data leakNoida schools timingSachin AhirDK ShivakumarAP EAPCET Result 2026Top TrendingDelhi EV Vehicle Policy 2026Bengal Refinery FireSonam RaghuvanshiFIFA World Cup 2026Monaco BlastBengaluru TechieAnukalp MishraSergei IvanovMK StalinJosh Hokit

NEW DELHI: General Upendra Dwivedi, during his last speech as Army chief on Tuesday, said “wars will be more joint, integrated and theatre-oriented in future”, therefore the direction of the armed forces is clear “to see together, take decisions together and take actions together”.Gen Dwivedi, whose distinguished military career spanned more than four decades, said, “As I conclude my tenure as the Chief of the Army Staff, my heart is filled with gratitude, appreciation, pride, and satisfaction. My journey from the Sainik School to this position has been unforgettable. Serving in the Indian Army for more than four decades has been the greatest privilege of my life.” Watch ‘History Or Geography’: Indian Army Chief Upendra Dwivedi Issues Stern Warning To PakistanGeneral Dhiraj Seth took over from Gen Dwivedi as the 31st Chief of Army Staff. He is the first officer from the Armoured Corps to lead the Army since General Shankar Roy Chowdhary retired in 1997. The change of command was marked with a ceremony at South Block Lawns in New Delhi, where Gen Dwivedi was given a special send-off.In another change in the Army leadership, Lt Gen Sandeep Jain will assume office as the Vice-Chief of the Army Staff from July 1. The reshuffle also witnessed Lt Gen Mohit Malhotra and Lt Gen Rajesh Pushkar take chare of the South Western and Southern Commands, respectively.Gen Dwivedi’s tenure will be remembered for maintaining a high state of operational preparedness, strengthening jointness among the services, accelerating the process of transformation and giving focused impetus to technology absorption, force restructuring and soldier-centric initiatives. He accorded high priority to operational readiness across all theatres. Under his leadership, the Indian Army maintained a robust and vigilant posture along the northern borders under Op Snow Leopard and discharged its responsibilities on the western front with resolve, restraint and professionalism, the defence ministry said. “Operation Sindoor was a defining moment of Gen Dwivedi’s tenure, reflecting the Army’s preparedness, precision and calibrated response in the emerging security environment,” it said.Under his guidance, the Indian Army pursued reforms in force restructuring, modernisation, technology absorption, jointness, systems reform and human resource management. Initiatives such as Rudra Brigades, Bhairav Battalions, Ashni Drone Platoons, Shaktibaan Regiments, Divyastra Batteries, Electronic Warfare Brigades and Integrated Battle Groups progressed as part of his larger effort to build a modern, agile and future-ready force.Gen Dwivedi also laid emphasis on enhanced synergy among the three services. He consistently encouraged greater integration, common operational thinking and improved coordination among the Army, Navy and Air Force, in keeping with the requirements of future joint, integrated and theatre-oriented operations. The welfare of serving personnel, veterans, Veer Naris and families remained a key priority during his tenure.Gen Dwivedi, who was conferred with prestigious awards of Param Vishisht Seva Medal and Ati Vishisht Seva Medal, also guided the formulation of Strategic Security Guidelines 2047, inspired by Viksit Bharat Vision 2047 and Armed Forces Vision 2047, to provide a long-term outlook for the Indian Army’s future preparedness.New Army chief Gen Dhiraj Seth:Over a distinguished military career spanning nearly four decades, Gen Dhiraj Seth has had extensive experience across the operational, strategic, capability development and institutional domains, contributing significantly to the Army’s combat effectiveness and long-term transformation, according to the Ministry of Defence.He is an alumnus of the National Defence Academy, Khadakwasla, and was commissioned into the Armoured Corps in December 1986. Over a distinguished military career spanning nearly four decades, he has had extensive experience across the operational, strategic, capability development and institutional domains, contributing significantly to the Army’s combat effectiveness and long-term transformation.General Dwivedi expressed confidence in Gen Seth as the next Army chief’s skills, saying, “He is a seasoned soldier and a capable leader. I have full confidence that under his leadership, the Indian Army will scale even greater heights while upholding its glorious traditions, professionalism, and resolve. As I hand over this charge today, I am fully confident about the future of the Indian Army; it will remain rooted in its traditions, stay vigilant regarding current challenges, and remain constantly prepared for any situation that may arise in the future.”Reshuffle in the IAF:In the Air Force, Air Marshal Ashutoh Dixit will take over as the Vice Chief of the Air Staff on July 1, succeeding Air Marshal Nagesh Kapoor.Get the latest India news and live updates. Download the TOI App.End of ArticleFollow Us On Social MediaVideosIndia’s Oil Import Price Fell Below $70— Why Petrol & Diesel Prices Won’t Drop Yet |West Asia CrisisDelhi’s Biggest EV Policy Yet! No New Petrol Bikes From 2028 | ₹15,000 Crore Plan ExplainedIndia, US Close to Major Boeing Defence Deal, Says Sergio Gor; Cites $20.5 Billion Investment BoostRajya Sabha Numbers Tilt Towards NDA, Bringing Two-Thirds Majority Within Striking DistanceIndia Condemns Pakistan’s Airstrikes In Afghanistan, Calls Them Assault On Sovereignty & Peace’No Official Role, No Official Support’: India Distances Itself From India-Pakistan Track-2 DialogueUS Ambassador Says Trump’s India Visit Could Happen Soon, Confirms Quad Meeting in PhilippinesAre We Learning Nothing From Deadly Fire Accidents Across India? Experts Sound AlarmSarla Bhat Murder Case: SIA Files 737-Page Chargesheet, Yasin Malik Named Main AccusedWhat West Bengal’s New Public Safety and Anti-Goonda Bill Means and Why It Is Controversial123Photostories8 hacks every Indian woman needs this season to beat ‘monsoon frizz’7 Natural ways to clean your home floors without harsh chemicals3 signs you are the ‘fringe friend’ in your groupNaomi Osaka rewrites Wimbledon fashion rules in a striking kimono-inspired ensembleForget Paneer and Besan: Try these 11 unusual Indian sweets made with vegetablesPsychology says loving fresh bedsheets isn’t just about hygiene; it may be your mind’s way of finding calm and control5 topical minoxidil alternatives to increase hair growthInside Gauahar Khan’s luxurious Rs 15 crore duplex house: Royal interiors, grand staircase and cosy cornersLord Karuppa Swamy’s red chillies offering to Pothuraju’s turmeric abhishekam: 5 South Indian folk deities that are worshipped with unique objectsLove quote of the day by Emraan Hashmi: ‘It’s a relation of trust’123Hot PicksKarnataka SIRJohn CenaSergio GorWWE Summerslam PredictionsiPhone 18 Pro data leakNoida schools timingSachin AhirDK ShivakumarAP EAPCET Result 2026Top TrendingDelhi EV Vehicle Policy 2026Bengal Refinery FireSonam RaghuvanshiFIFA World Cup 2026Monaco BlastBengaluru TechieAnukalp MishraSergei IvanovMK StalinJosh Hokit

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NEW DELHI: General Upendra Dwivedi, during his last speech as Army chief on Tuesday, said “wars will be more joint, integrated and theatre-oriented in future”, therefore the direction of the armed forces is clear “to see together, take decisions together and take actions together”.Gen Dwivedi, whose distinguished military career spanned more than four decades, said,…

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The Expenditure Finance Committee (EFC) under the Finance Ministry has cleared a proposal for a Rs 1.25 lakh crore outlay under India Semiconductor Mission (ISM) 2.0, marking a major step in the country’s efforts to strengthen domestic chip manufacturing and build a comprehensive semiconductor ecosystem, sources told PTI. The Expenditure Finance Committee (EFC) under the…

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India has crossed a major demographic milestone: for the first time in modern history its fertility rate has slipped below the replacement level.The latest SRS report from India’s Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner shows the average Indian woman is now expected to have 1.9 children — under the 2.1 threshold that keeps a population stable — joining more than 130 countries already at sub‑replacement fertility.But here’s the twist: lower fertility hasn’t stopped India’s population from growing.In 2026, India is still set to add roughly 1.3 crore people through natural increase — the largest single‑country gain anywhere.That seeming contradiction comes down to population momentum: decades of higher birth rates have built a huge cohort of young adults now entering their prime childbearing years.Even with smaller families, the sheer number of potential parents keeps births above deaths, delaying the point at which the country’s population begins to stabilise and eventually decline.Before we dive into the charts, it’s important to know a few demographic terms that experts use to measure population change.• Replacement Fertility (Replacement-Level Fertility): The average number of children a woman needs to have to replace herself and her partner in the next generation. In most countries, this level is considered 2.1 children per woman.• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime based on current fertility patterns. It measures family size, not the number of births in a given year.• Birth Rate (Crude Birth Rate): The number of live births per 1,000 people in a population each year. Unlike TFR, it depends on the population’s age structure as well as fertility.1. Where does India stand?India has entered a significant phase in its demographic transition. In 2026, 131 countries and territories are estimated to have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, and India is now among them.Yet, despite its below-replacement fertility rate of 1.9, India is projected to add around 1.3 crore people through natural increase in 2026—the largest population gain of any country. This makes India a demographic outlier: among the 10 countries expected to add the most people, it has the lowest fertility rate. By comparison, countries such as Bangladesh and Indonesia are only just approaching replacement-level fertility, while the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a fertility rate of 5.8 children per woman, is projected to add around 37 lakh people in the same year.The contrast highlights an important reality: India’s population growth is no longer being driven by high fertility, but by its large and youthful population base, which continues to produce more births than deaths despite smaller family sizes.2. What factors drive population growth?Population growth is determined by far more than fertility alone. While the fertility rate indicates how many children women are having, the overall size of a population is also influenced by several demographic factors that affect the balance between births and deaths over time.Population momentum (The Biggest Driver)India’s population exceeds 1.4 billion with one of the world’s youngest populations, with a large share of people currently in their 20s and 30s—the prime childbearing years.Even though the average woman is now having fewer than two children, the sheer number of people entering parenthood each year keeps the total number of births high, allowing the population to continue growing for decades.Births still exceed deathsDespite declining fertility, India continues to record significantly more births than deaths every year, resulting in a natural increase in population. This gap between births and deaths is expected to add around 1.3 crore people to India’s population in 2026 alone.India records around 9.5 million deaths annually—the second-highest absolute number in the world after China—but this largely reflects its status as the world’s most populous country.Relative to its population size, India’s Crude Death Rate (CDR) remains lower than the global average and has steadily declined over time.According to Data for India, even as India’s population grew by more than a billion people between 1950 and 2025, annual deaths remained broadly stable at around 8–10 million, allowing births to consistently outpace deaths and sustain population growth.Increasing life expectancyAnother key reason India’s population continues to grow is that people are living longer than ever before.In 1950, the average Indian could expect to live just 41 years, compared with 69 years in the United Kingdom.By 2024, India’s life expectancy had risen to around 72 years, significantly narrowing the gap with the UK. Improved healthcare, better nutrition and lower mortality have enabled more people to survive into older age, contributing to continued population growth.Declining infant mortalityAs more children survive into adulthood, the need for larger families declines, contributing to lower fertility while also sustaining population growth in the short term.According to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report, India’s Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) fell from 30 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 in 2024. The decline in infant mortality is closely linked to falling fertility across the country, as families become more confident that their children will survive, reducing the need to have more births.Regional differencesIndia’s demographic transition is uneven, with fertility rates varying widely across states. Many southern states crossed below replacement fertility years ago.This shift has prompted a policy reversal in some low-fertility states. Andhra Pradesh has scrapped its two-child norm for local body elections, Tamil Nadu is encouraging larger families, and Kerala stands with 1.3.Education is driving fertility lowerThe latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report shows that fertility declines steadily as women’s educational attainment increases. Women with no formal education have an average fertility rate of 3.2 children, compared with 1.8 among literate women and 1.6 among graduates or those with higher education.The report also highlights a clear rural-urban divide. The average rural woman has 2.1 children, compared with 1.5 in urban areas, where fertility is now well below the replacement level. Over the past decade, rural fertility has declined from 2.6 to 2.1, while urban fertility has fallen from 1.8 to 1.5, reflecting changing family preferences, greater educational opportunities and increased urbanisation.No children after turning 30A study published in Nature titled “Changes in Age at Last Birth and Its Determinants in India” found that Indian women are completing their childbearing at younger ages. Researchers Mayank Singh, Chander Shekhar and Neha Shri reported that the median age at last birth has remained below 30 years since National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data-3, reflecting a shift towards smaller families and earlier completion of childbearing. This trend is another indicator of India’s ongoing demographic transition and declining fertility. The birth ladder is thinningIndia’s birth pattern has changed dramatically over the past decade, with first and second children now accounting for a much larger share of all births. First-born children made up 43% of live births in 2014, rising to 66.4% by 2024. Meanwhile, third-and-higher-order births declined from 25.9% to 10.8%, while fourth-or-higher births fell sharply from 10.8% to just 3.5%.The shift does not mean every family is choosing to have only one or two children. Instead, it shows that larger families are becoming far less common, reflecting changing social and economic priorities. Smaller family sizes allow parents to invest more in each child’s education, health and overall well-being, while also signalling a gradual shift away from viewing children primarily as a source of financial support in old age.3. Northern and central states-wise report Bihar (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.6), Madhya Pradesh (2.4), Rajasthan (2.3), Chhattisgarh (2.2) and Jharkhand (2.2) continue to record fertility rates above the national average and account for a large share of India’s population growth.At the other end of the spectrum, Delhi has one of the country’s lowest fertility rates at 1.2, reflecting demographic trends already seen in many developed regions.The World Bank has also cautioned that South Asia is not creating enough jobs to keep pace with its expanding working-age population, particularly for young people and women, making balanced regional development increasingly important.4. When will India’s fertility begin to decline?According to UN data, the country’s fertility could begin to decline around 2047 under a steep fertility-decline scenario, or around 2063 under a medium-decline scenario.However, some demographers believe the turning point could arrive even earlier. Rapid declines in fertility across many states, women completing childbearing at younger ages, limited future gains in life expectancy, and the fact that some Indian districts are already witnessing population decline suggest that India’s population peak may occur sooner than the UN’s 2047 estimate.The big pictureIf numbers tell a story, this one is full of ironies: India is shrinking its family sizes even as an army of young people keeps the country growing.The shift will reshape ordinary life — how young couples plan careers and children, how cities bustle or quieten, how neighbourhoods age — in ways that won’t show up immediately on any chart.More than a demographic milestone, this is a slow-motion cultural turning point: a country remaking its future not by having more people, but by changing what family, work and ageing look like for a generation.What this moment really demands is a rethink of priorities more than panic.India is sliding into a new demographic era where the challenges will be less about sheer numbers and more about quality — jobs for a swelling workforce, health and social care for a graying population, and policies that support choices around family, work and retirement.The window to turn a demographic shift into a long-term advantage is open but narrowing; smart investments in education, female labour participation, and regional job creation will decide whether India cashes in on its remaining demographic dividend or gets caught by its own momentum.Get the latest India news and live updates. Download the TOI App.End of ArticleFollow Us On Social MediaVideosIndia’s Oil Import Price Fell Below — Why Petrol & Diesel Prices Won’t Drop Yet |West Asia CrisisDelhi’s Biggest EV Policy Yet! No New Petrol Bikes From 2028 | ₹15,000 Crore Plan ExplainedIndia, US Close to Major Boeing Defence Deal, Says Sergio Gor; Cites .5 Billion Investment BoostRajya Sabha Numbers Tilt Towards NDA, Bringing Two-Thirds Majority Within Striking DistanceIndia Condemns Pakistan’s Airstrikes In Afghanistan, Calls Them Assault On Sovereignty & Peace’No Official Role, No Official Support’: India Distances Itself From India-Pakistan Track-2 DialogueUS Ambassador Says Trump’s India Visit Could Happen Soon, Confirms Quad Meeting in PhilippinesAre We Learning Nothing From Deadly Fire Accidents Across India? Experts Sound AlarmSarla Bhat Murder Case: SIA Files 737-Page Chargesheet, Yasin Malik Named Main AccusedWhat West Bengal’s New Public Safety and Anti-Goonda Bill Means and Why It Is Controversial123PhotostoriesAre you always complaining? Neurosurgeon explains how it affects the brain, and why its not worth it8 hacks every Indian woman needs this season to beat ‘monsoon frizz’7 Natural ways to clean your home floors without harsh chemicals3 signs you are the ‘fringe friend’ in your groupNaomi Osaka rewrites Wimbledon fashion rules in a striking kimono-inspired ensembleForget Paneer and Besan: Try these 11 unusual Indian sweets made with vegetablesPsychology says loving fresh bedsheets isn’t just about hygiene; it may be your mind’s way of finding calm and control5 topical minoxidil alternatives to increase hair growthInside Gauahar Khan’s luxurious Rs 15 crore duplex house: Royal interiors, grand staircase and cosy cornersLord Karuppa Swamy’s red chillies offering to Pothuraju’s turmeric abhishekam: 5 South Indian folk deities that are worshipped with unique objects123Hot PicksKarnataka SIRJohn CenaSergio GorWWE Summerslam PredictionsiPhone 18 Pro data leakNoida schools timingSachin AhirDK ShivakumarAP EAPCET Result 2026Top TrendingDelhi EV Vehicle Policy 2026Bengal Refinery FireSonam RaghuvanshiFIFA World Cup 2026Monaco BlastBengaluru TechieAnukalp MishraSergei IvanovMK StalinJosh Hokit

India has crossed a major demographic milestone: for the first time in modern history its fertility rate has slipped below the replacement level.The latest SRS report from India’s Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner shows the average Indian woman is now expected to have 1.9 children — under the 2.1 threshold that keeps a population stable — joining more than 130 countries already at sub‑replacement fertility.But here’s the twist: lower fertility hasn’t stopped India’s population from growing.In 2026, India is still set to add roughly 1.3 crore people through natural increase — the largest single‑country gain anywhere.That seeming contradiction comes down to population momentum: decades of higher birth rates have built a huge cohort of young adults now entering their prime childbearing years.Even with smaller families, the sheer number of potential parents keeps births above deaths, delaying the point at which the country’s population begins to stabilise and eventually decline.Before we dive into the charts, it’s important to know a few demographic terms that experts use to measure population change.• Replacement Fertility (Replacement-Level Fertility): The average number of children a woman needs to have to replace herself and her partner in the next generation. In most countries, this level is considered 2.1 children per woman.• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime based on current fertility patterns. It measures family size, not the number of births in a given year.• Birth Rate (Crude Birth Rate): The number of live births per 1,000 people in a population each year. Unlike TFR, it depends on the population’s age structure as well as fertility.1. Where does India stand?India has entered a significant phase in its demographic transition. In 2026, 131 countries and territories are estimated to have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, and India is now among them.Yet, despite its below-replacement fertility rate of 1.9, India is projected to add around 1.3 crore people through natural increase in 2026—the largest population gain of any country. This makes India a demographic outlier: among the 10 countries expected to add the most people, it has the lowest fertility rate. By comparison, countries such as Bangladesh and Indonesia are only just approaching replacement-level fertility, while the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a fertility rate of 5.8 children per woman, is projected to add around 37 lakh people in the same year.The contrast highlights an important reality: India’s population growth is no longer being driven by high fertility, but by its large and youthful population base, which continues to produce more births than deaths despite smaller family sizes.2. What factors drive population growth?Population growth is determined by far more than fertility alone. While the fertility rate indicates how many children women are having, the overall size of a population is also influenced by several demographic factors that affect the balance between births and deaths over time.Population momentum (The Biggest Driver)India’s population exceeds 1.4 billion with one of the world’s youngest populations, with a large share of people currently in their 20s and 30s—the prime childbearing years.Even though the average woman is now having fewer than two children, the sheer number of people entering parenthood each year keeps the total number of births high, allowing the population to continue growing for decades.Births still exceed deathsDespite declining fertility, India continues to record significantly more births than deaths every year, resulting in a natural increase in population. This gap between births and deaths is expected to add around 1.3 crore people to India’s population in 2026 alone.India records around 9.5 million deaths annually—the second-highest absolute number in the world after China—but this largely reflects its status as the world’s most populous country.Relative to its population size, India’s Crude Death Rate (CDR) remains lower than the global average and has steadily declined over time.According to Data for India, even as India’s population grew by more than a billion people between 1950 and 2025, annual deaths remained broadly stable at around 8–10 million, allowing births to consistently outpace deaths and sustain population growth.Increasing life expectancyAnother key reason India’s population continues to grow is that people are living longer than ever before.In 1950, the average Indian could expect to live just 41 years, compared with 69 years in the United Kingdom.By 2024, India’s life expectancy had risen to around 72 years, significantly narrowing the gap with the UK. Improved healthcare, better nutrition and lower mortality have enabled more people to survive into older age, contributing to continued population growth.Declining infant mortalityAs more children survive into adulthood, the need for larger families declines, contributing to lower fertility while also sustaining population growth in the short term.According to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report, India’s Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) fell from 30 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 in 2024. The decline in infant mortality is closely linked to falling fertility across the country, as families become more confident that their children will survive, reducing the need to have more births.Regional differencesIndia’s demographic transition is uneven, with fertility rates varying widely across states. Many southern states crossed below replacement fertility years ago.This shift has prompted a policy reversal in some low-fertility states. Andhra Pradesh has scrapped its two-child norm for local body elections, Tamil Nadu is encouraging larger families, and Kerala stands with 1.3.Education is driving fertility lowerThe latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report shows that fertility declines steadily as women’s educational attainment increases. Women with no formal education have an average fertility rate of 3.2 children, compared with 1.8 among literate women and 1.6 among graduates or those with higher education.The report also highlights a clear rural-urban divide. The average rural woman has 2.1 children, compared with 1.5 in urban areas, where fertility is now well below the replacement level. Over the past decade, rural fertility has declined from 2.6 to 2.1, while urban fertility has fallen from 1.8 to 1.5, reflecting changing family preferences, greater educational opportunities and increased urbanisation.No children after turning 30A study published in Nature titled “Changes in Age at Last Birth and Its Determinants in India” found that Indian women are completing their childbearing at younger ages. Researchers Mayank Singh, Chander Shekhar and Neha Shri reported that the median age at last birth has remained below 30 years since National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data-3, reflecting a shift towards smaller families and earlier completion of childbearing. This trend is another indicator of India’s ongoing demographic transition and declining fertility. The birth ladder is thinningIndia’s birth pattern has changed dramatically over the past decade, with first and second children now accounting for a much larger share of all births. First-born children made up 43% of live births in 2014, rising to 66.4% by 2024. Meanwhile, third-and-higher-order births declined from 25.9% to 10.8%, while fourth-or-higher births fell sharply from 10.8% to just 3.5%.The shift does not mean every family is choosing to have only one or two children. Instead, it shows that larger families are becoming far less common, reflecting changing social and economic priorities. Smaller family sizes allow parents to invest more in each child’s education, health and overall well-being, while also signalling a gradual shift away from viewing children primarily as a source of financial support in old age.3. Northern and central states-wise report Bihar (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.6), Madhya Pradesh (2.4), Rajasthan (2.3), Chhattisgarh (2.2) and Jharkhand (2.2) continue to record fertility rates above the national average and account for a large share of India’s population growth.At the other end of the spectrum, Delhi has one of the country’s lowest fertility rates at 1.2, reflecting demographic trends already seen in many developed regions.The World Bank has also cautioned that South Asia is not creating enough jobs to keep pace with its expanding working-age population, particularly for young people and women, making balanced regional development increasingly important.4. When will India’s fertility begin to decline?According to UN data, the country’s fertility could begin to decline around 2047 under a steep fertility-decline scenario, or around 2063 under a medium-decline scenario.However, some demographers believe the turning point could arrive even earlier. Rapid declines in fertility across many states, women completing childbearing at younger ages, limited future gains in life expectancy, and the fact that some Indian districts are already witnessing population decline suggest that India’s population peak may occur sooner than the UN’s 2047 estimate.The big pictureIf numbers tell a story, this one is full of ironies: India is shrinking its family sizes even as an army of young people keeps the country growing.The shift will reshape ordinary life — how young couples plan careers and children, how cities bustle or quieten, how neighbourhoods age — in ways that won’t show up immediately on any chart.More than a demographic milestone, this is a slow-motion cultural turning point: a country remaking its future not by having more people, but by changing what family, work and ageing look like for a generation.What this moment really demands is a rethink of priorities more than panic.India is sliding into a new demographic era where the challenges will be less about sheer numbers and more about quality — jobs for a swelling workforce, health and social care for a graying population, and policies that support choices around family, work and retirement.The window to turn a demographic shift into a long-term advantage is open but narrowing; smart investments in education, female labour participation, and regional job creation will decide whether India cashes in on its remaining demographic dividend or gets caught by its own momentum.Get the latest India news and live updates. 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Vamsikrishna08 mins mins

India has crossed a major demographic milestone: for the first time in modern history its fertility rate has slipped below the replacement level.The latest SRS report from India’s Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner shows the average Indian woman is now expected to have 1.9 children — under the 2.1 threshold that keeps…

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Jun 30, 2026, 15:50 IST

Jun 30, 2026, 15:50 IST

Vamsikrishna02 mins mins

Ben Stokes. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images) Tributes continue to pour in for Ben Stokes following his shock retirement from international cricket, with former India opener Shikhar Dhawan becoming the latest cricketer to salute the England all-rounder’s remarkable career.Stokes announced his retirement during the third Test against New Zealand at Trent Bridge, bringing the curtain…

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‘Nothing to do with India’: England cricketer clarifies after accusing ICC of bias

‘Nothing to do with India’: England cricketer clarifies after accusing ICC of bias

Vamsikrishna03 mins mins

India Women’s cricket team (Getty Images) England cricketers Kate Cross and Alex Hartley have clarified that their criticism of the ICC’s Women’s T20 World Cup semi-final scheduling was never directed at India, saying they have received abuse and even death threats after their comments were widely circulated on social media.The pair addressed the issue on…

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‘I was a two-time NEET aspirant’: Old video of fake Army Brigadier Aryan Verma motivating UPSC aspirants resurfaces— watch

‘I was a two-time NEET aspirant’: Old video of fake Army Brigadier Aryan Verma motivating UPSC aspirants resurfaces— watch

Vamsikrishna02 mins mins

An old video of Aryan Verma, the man arrested for allegedly posing as an Indian Army Brigadier, has resurfaced on social media. In the clip, Verma is seen addressing a gathering of UPSC aspirants while being accompanied by armed security personnel, who pose at the beginning of the video.During his speech, Verma talks about the…

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‘Aishwarya Rai was deeply hurt when the industry abandoned her for Salman Khan,’ said Prahlad Kakkar: ‘She felt betrayed’

‘Aishwarya Rai was deeply hurt when the industry abandoned her for Salman Khan,’ said Prahlad Kakkar: ‘She felt betrayed’

Vamsikrishna03 mins mins

Former advertising filmmaker Prahlad Kakkar, who worked with Aishwarya Rai Bachchan during her modelling days, had previously reflected on the actor’s highly publicised split from Salman Khan. In a 2025 interview, he claimed that while the breakup itself brought her relief, what hurt her most was feeling abandoned by the film industry, which she believed…

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Before anyone knew dinosaurs existed, a man found one of their bones and thought it belonged to a giant elephant

Before anyone knew dinosaurs existed, a man found one of their bones and thought it belonged to a giant elephant

Vamsikrishna03 mins mins

Long before the word “dinosaur” was ever coined, people occasionally stumbled upon gigantic fossilized bones without knowing what creatures they came from. One of the first such cases occurred in the late 17th century when an enormous fossil discovered in England was believed to be the fossil of a giant elephant.The discovery happened in 1676…

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Delhi HC permits 17-year-old minor to donate part of liver to save father’s life, directs ILBS to ensure safety protocols | India News

Delhi HC permits 17-year-old minor to donate part of liver to save father’s life, directs ILBS to ensure safety protocols | India News

Vamsikrishna03 mins mins

Delhi HC permits 17-year-old minor to donate part of liver to save father’s life, directs ILBS to ensure safety protocols New Delhi [India], June 30 (ANI): The Delhi High Court has permitted a 17-year-old boy to donate a portion of his liver to his father suffering from advanced chronic liver disease, while directing the Institute…

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RSSB Rajasthan 4th Grade Cut-Off 2026 out: Here’s how to check category-wise qualifying marks

RSSB Rajasthan 4th Grade Cut-Off 2026 out: Here’s how to check category-wise qualifying marks

Vamsikrishna02 mins mins

The Rajasthan Staff Selection Board (RSSB) has released the Rajasthan Fourth Grade Cut-Off 2026 along with the revised provisional result. Candidates who appeared for the recruitment examination can now check the category-wise cut-off marks on the official website, rssb.rajasthan.gov.in.The recruitment examination was conducted from September 19 to 21, 2025. A total of 24,71,066 candidates had…

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