What is the ‘Thucydides Trap’? Why Xi Jinping brought it up during talks with Donald Trump in Beijing
When Chinese President Xi Jinping met US President Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday, one phrase unexpectedly dominated strategic discussions between the world’s two biggest powers: the “Thucydides Trap”.“Whether China and the United States can transcend the so-called Thucydides Trap and create a new normalization of relations between major powers; whether we can join hands to address global challenges and inject greater stability into the world; whether we can advance the well-being of the peoples of our two countries and the future destiny of humanity, and jointly create a better future for bilateral relations,” Xi said in his opening remarks.Opening the bilateral meeting, Xi framed the future of China-US relations as one of the defining questions of the current era.The term, reflects a deeper concern shaping modern geopolitics — whether the growing rivalry between the United States and China can remain competitive without sliding into direct conflict.At one level, the phrase sounds academic. But in reality, it sits at the centre of the current global power struggle involving trade wars, semiconductor restrictions, military tensions in the Indo-Pacific and the race for technological dominance.
The theory behind the phrase
The “Thucydides Trap” was popularised by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, who drew from the writings of ancient Greek historian Thucydides.Thucydides had analysed the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta nearly 2,500 years ago and concluded that it was the rise of Athens and the fear this created in Sparta that made war inevitable.Allison later adapted the idea to modern geopolitics. His argument was that when a rising power threatens to displace an established dominant power, structural tensions emerge that make conflict more likely — even if neither side actively seeks war.
He used this framework to examine the evolving relationship between the US and China.
Why the theory matters now
China’s rapid rise over the last three decades has fundamentally altered the global balance of power. From manufacturing and trade to artificial intelligence, naval expansion and semiconductor technology, Beijing increasingly challenges areas long dominated by Washington.What began as economic competition has gradually widened into strategic rivalry.The tensions are now visible across tariffs, export controls, cybersecurity, Taiwan, supply chains and military positioning in the Western Pacific.The relationship has become even more strained under Trump’s presidency, with Washington intensifying technology restrictions and pushing aggressive trade measures against Beijing.Analysts say this widening confrontation closely resembles the structural competition described by the “Thucydides Trap” theory.
Why Xi raised it with Trump
Xi has invoked the phrase several times over the past decade, including during discussions with former US President Joe Biden in 2024.His message has remained consistent: conflict between China and the US is not unavoidable if both countries find a way to coexist through what Beijing calls “mutual respect” and “win-win cooperation”.By raising the issue directly with Trump, Xi also appeared to elevate the current tensions beyond temporary disputes over tariffs or trade deficits.For Beijing, the rivalry is increasingly viewed as a defining test of whether an emerging power and an established power can avoid repeating history’s pattern of confrontation.The phrase additionally reinforces China’s effort to position itself as a global peer to the US rather than as a subordinate player in the international order.
Is US-China conflict inevitable?
Not necessarily. Many American policymakers remain cautious about using the phrase because they fear it can create the impression that war is unavoidable. Washington instead prefers terms such as “guardrails”, “strategic competition” and “risk management”.Critics of the theory also point out that today’s world is far more economically interconnected than previous historical rivalries, wrote Bloomberg. The US and China remain deeply tied through trade, finance and global supply chains despite growing tensions.Still, the concept continues to resonate because it captures the central anxiety surrounding US-China relations: whether the world’s two largest powers can manage competition without drifting into confrontation.As trade battles intensify and technological rivalry deepens, the “Thucydides Trap” has evolved from a classroom theory into one of the defining strategic debates shaping global politics today.
