PTI photo NEW DELHI: With not a very large gap between Left-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, the exit polls have predicted a neck and neck contest between both the rival factions. According to the poll of polls, UDF is expected to cross the majority mark with 72 seats in the 140 Kerala assembly. However, the LDF is expected to be not far behind the Congress-led faction with pollsters suggesting 63 seats for the ruling Front. Axis My India has predicted the widest margin between the LDF and the UDF, with 55 and 83 seats, respectively.PMARQ exit poll, on the other hand, has predicted majority for the ruling LDF with 75 seats.In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is seeking to replace the LDF government that is in power. Kerala’s electoral history has typically been defined by alternating LDF and UDF govts. However, LDF’s consecutive victory in 2021 under Vijayan disrupted that pattern, making the 2026 contest a test of whether traditional anti-incumbency sentiment remains intact. A defeat for LDF would also diminish the presence of CPM in its last major stronghold.The campaign narrative has also undergone notable shifts. Early phases were dominated by issues such as corruption allegations, economic concerns, backdoor appointments, the Sabarimala gold heist controversy, and rehabilitation concerns of Wayanad landslide victims, alongside scandals involving opposition leaders. However, as campaigning intensified, these issues gave way to sharper political attacks, including allegations of covert alliances, communal polarisation debates, and direct exchanges between senior leaders.LDF has framed the election as a referendum on the “Pinarayi model”, highlighting welfare expansion, infrastructure development, and administrative centralisation. It has also promised an expanded welfare agenda if voted back to governance.UDF, on the other hand, has advanced a counter-narrative of “welfare with accountability”, questioning the efficiency, transparency, and fiscal sustainability of the govt’s programmes while banking on voter fatigue and economic concerns.Note: Exit polls are just predictions based on surveys and can turn out to be wrong on the result day (May 4).About the AuthorTOI News DeskThe TOI News Desk comprises a dedicated and tireless team of journalists who operate around the clock to deliver the most current and comprehensive news and updates to the readers of The Times of India worldwide. With an unwavering commitment to excellence in journalism, our team is at the forefront of gathering, verifying, and presenting breaking news, in-depth analysis, and insightful reports on a wide range of topics. The TOI News Desk is your trusted source for staying informed and connected to the ever-evolving global landscape, ensuring that our readers are equipped with the latest developments that matter most.”Read MoreEnd of ArticleFollow Us On Social MediaVideosRaghav Chadha Fallout: Who Really Wins and Loses in Punjab?Mumbai–Pune Expressway’s ‘Missing Link’ Opens May 1: Faster Travel, Better Safety, No Extra Toll90-Year-Old Rejects Apology, Then Court Pushes ₹20 Crore Case to 2046Ganga Expressway Inaugurated: What ₹1,500 Toll Gets You on UP’s 594-km High-Speed Corridor | PM ModiUAE Quits OPEC In Big Oil Shake-Up: What It Means For India‘Siddaramaiah Ready To Step Down As Karnataka CM If Rahul Gandhi Asks’: Ex-Minister RajannaBengal Phase 2 Polls: 142 Constituencies Vote Today, Over 3.21 Crore Voters to DecideChokepoints of Power: how India can ‘trump’ China on the seasSwati Maliwal’s Explosive Exit: Assault Allegations, ‘Betrayal’ Charges Rock AAP As She Joins BJPIndian Aviation Sector Warns Of Possible Shutdown Amid Soaring Fuel Costs123PhotostoriesWhy does day-old rice get dry in the refrigerator? 4 easy fixes to keep it soft and fluffy‘Ted Lasso’ season 4 release: Here is all you need to knowShe thought it was stress, doctors found a hormone disorderTamannaah Bhatia serves Andy Sachs energy at ‘The Devil Wears Prada’ India screening in a dramatic David Koma ensembleJyotiraditya Scindia carries an onion in his pocket: Why Indians follow this tradition in summerIs your child not serious about studies? 5 parental behaviours that could be the reasonTMC’s fort or BJP’s breakthrough? The 7 districts that will decide who rules Nabanna‘Baahubali 2’ 9 year anniversary: Top 5 iconic scenes that defined Prabhas’ superstardom5 Pokémon that secretly exist in the real world“I’ve been smoking for years and I’m fine”: What doctors say about delayed damage123Hot PicksExit Poll Result 2026Bengal Election 2026Bengal Poll Phase 2 ViolenceFirhad HakimMK StalinExit Poll PredictionsHimanta Biswa SarmaTop TrendingAssembly Election Exit PollsExit Poll results 2026Bengal Exit Polls 2026Puducherry Exit Polls 2026IPL Match TodayMI vs SRH Live ScoreRaja Raghuvanshi Wife BailBengal PollsCGBSE 12th ResultIPL Orange Cap

PTI photo NEW DELHI: With not a very large gap between Left-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, the exit polls have predicted a neck and neck contest between both the rival factions. According to the poll of polls, UDF is expected to cross the majority mark with 72 seats in the 140 Kerala assembly. However, the LDF is expected to be not far behind the Congress-led faction with pollsters suggesting 63 seats for the ruling Front. Axis My India has predicted the widest margin between the LDF and the UDF, with 55 and 83 seats, respectively.PMARQ exit poll, on the other hand, has predicted majority for the ruling LDF with 75 seats.In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is seeking to replace the LDF government that is in power. Kerala’s electoral history has typically been defined by alternating LDF and UDF govts. However, LDF’s consecutive victory in 2021 under Vijayan disrupted that pattern, making the 2026 contest a test of whether traditional anti-incumbency sentiment remains intact. A defeat for LDF would also diminish the presence of CPM in its last major stronghold.The campaign narrative has also undergone notable shifts. Early phases were dominated by issues such as corruption allegations, economic concerns, backdoor appointments, the Sabarimala gold heist controversy, and rehabilitation concerns of Wayanad landslide victims, alongside scandals involving opposition leaders. However, as campaigning intensified, these issues gave way to sharper political attacks, including allegations of covert alliances, communal polarisation debates, and direct exchanges between senior leaders.LDF has framed the election as a referendum on the “Pinarayi model”, highlighting welfare expansion, infrastructure development, and administrative centralisation. It has also promised an expanded welfare agenda if voted back to governance.UDF, on the other hand, has advanced a counter-narrative of “welfare with accountability”, questioning the efficiency, transparency, and fiscal sustainability of the govt’s programmes while banking on voter fatigue and economic concerns.Note: Exit polls are just predictions based on surveys and can turn out to be wrong on the result day (May 4).About the AuthorTOI News DeskThe TOI News Desk comprises a dedicated and tireless team of journalists who operate around the clock to deliver the most current and comprehensive news and updates to the readers of The Times of India worldwide. With an unwavering commitment to excellence in journalism, our team is at the forefront of gathering, verifying, and presenting breaking news, in-depth analysis, and insightful reports on a wide range of topics. The TOI News Desk is your trusted source for staying informed and connected to the ever-evolving global landscape, ensuring that our readers are equipped with the latest developments that matter most.”Read MoreEnd of ArticleFollow Us On Social MediaVideosRaghav Chadha Fallout: Who Really Wins and Loses in Punjab?Mumbai–Pune Expressway’s ‘Missing Link’ Opens May 1: Faster Travel, Better Safety, No Extra Toll90-Year-Old Rejects Apology, Then Court Pushes ₹20 Crore Case to 2046Ganga Expressway Inaugurated: What ₹1,500 Toll Gets You on UP’s 594-km High-Speed Corridor | PM ModiUAE Quits OPEC In Big Oil Shake-Up: What It Means For India‘Siddaramaiah Ready To Step Down As Karnataka CM If Rahul Gandhi Asks’: Ex-Minister RajannaBengal Phase 2 Polls: 142 Constituencies Vote Today, Over 3.21 Crore Voters to DecideChokepoints of Power: how India can ‘trump’ China on the seasSwati Maliwal’s Explosive Exit: Assault Allegations, ‘Betrayal’ Charges Rock AAP As She Joins BJPIndian Aviation Sector Warns Of Possible Shutdown Amid Soaring Fuel Costs123PhotostoriesWhy does day-old rice get dry in the refrigerator? 4 easy fixes to keep it soft and fluffy‘Ted Lasso’ season 4 release: Here is all you need to knowShe thought it was stress, doctors found a hormone disorderTamannaah Bhatia serves Andy Sachs energy at ‘The Devil Wears Prada’ India screening in a dramatic David Koma ensembleJyotiraditya Scindia carries an onion in his pocket: Why Indians follow this tradition in summerIs your child not serious about studies? 5 parental behaviours that could be the reasonTMC’s fort or BJP’s breakthrough? The 7 districts that will decide who rules Nabanna‘Baahubali 2’ 9 year anniversary: Top 5 iconic scenes that defined Prabhas’ superstardom5 Pokémon that secretly exist in the real world“I’ve been smoking for years and I’m fine”: What doctors say about delayed damage123Hot PicksExit Poll Result 2026Bengal Election 2026Bengal Poll Phase 2 ViolenceFirhad HakimMK StalinExit Poll PredictionsHimanta Biswa SarmaTop TrendingAssembly Election Exit PollsExit Poll results 2026Bengal Exit Polls 2026Puducherry Exit Polls 2026IPL Match TodayMI vs SRH Live ScoreRaja Raghuvanshi Wife BailBengal PollsCGBSE 12th ResultIPL Orange Cap


Kerala exit polls 2026: UDF predicted to win coastal state in neck-and-neck contest with LDF

NEW DELHI: With not a very large gap between Left-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, the exit polls have predicted a neck and neck contest between both the rival factions. According to the poll of polls, UDF is expected to cross the majority mark with 72 seats in the 140 Kerala assembly. However, the LDF is expected to be not far behind the Congress-led faction with pollsters suggesting 63 seats for the ruling Front. Axis My India has predicted the widest margin between the LDF and the UDF, with 55 and 83 seats, respectively.PMARQ exit poll, on the other hand, has predicted majority for the ruling LDF with 75 seats.In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is seeking to replace the LDF government that is in power. Kerala’s electoral history has typically been defined by alternating LDF and UDF govts. However, LDF’s consecutive victory in 2021 under Vijayan disrupted that pattern, making the 2026 contest a test of whether traditional anti-incumbency sentiment remains intact. A defeat for LDF would also diminish the presence of CPM in its last major stronghold.The campaign narrative has also undergone notable shifts. Early phases were dominated by issues such as corruption allegations, economic concerns, backdoor appointments, the Sabarimala gold heist controversy, and rehabilitation concerns of Wayanad landslide victims, alongside scandals involving opposition leaders. However, as campaigning intensified, these issues gave way to sharper political attacks, including allegations of covert alliances, communal polarisation debates, and direct exchanges between senior leaders.LDF has framed the election as a referendum on the “Pinarayi model”, highlighting welfare expansion, infrastructure development, and administrative centralisation. It has also promised an expanded welfare agenda if voted back to governance.UDF, on the other hand, has advanced a counter-narrative of “welfare with accountability”, questioning the efficiency, transparency, and fiscal sustainability of the govt’s programmes while banking on voter fatigue and economic concerns.Note: Exit polls are just predictions based on surveys and can turn out to be wrong on the result day (May 4).



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